Award Speculation

The Final Predictions

2007-02-16T23:09:00.000-08:00

They're here just in time for Oscar night. Whaddya think?

The Best of the Year

2007-02-04T10:13:00.000-08:00

Top 10 is here, and If I Picked the Winners is here.

The nominations are out...

2007-01-23T10:13:00.000-08:00

...what do you think of them???

Final Predictions 2007

2007-01-15T20:52:00.000-08:00

The big list is here. Where do you think I went wrong -- and where did I go correctly out on a limb?

The Guilds, The New Predix

2007-01-09T11:24:00.000-08:00

After checking out the new January predictions as well as the surprising guild nominations (no PGA love for "Letters From Iwo Jima," SAG category confusion for "The Departed," fellow UCLA Film School alums Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris in the DGA mix), what do you think? Is Clint Eastwood doomed this year?

2006 Film Reviews

2006-12-27T00:18:00.000-08:00

The ongoing rundown of the movies I've seen this year is here. What do you think?

Post-Globes Predictions

2006-12-14T01:09:00.000-08:00

Now that the Golden Globe nominations are out and new predictions are in place, what do you think?

Discuss...

2006-11-30T23:03:00.000-08:00

...the latest Oscar predictions here:

2007 Predictions Ready

2006-03-12T23:34:00.000-08:00

Start with Best Picture and move through all the 2007 predictions for the Big 8 categories. What do you think?

The Show Is Upon Us

2006-03-05T16:07:00.000-08:00

I'm going to an Oscar party, so I can't do any live blogging -- but feel free to post your thoughts during and after the show here. I'll respond later tonight. Let's hope for some surprises...

Final Pre-Show Predictions

2006-02-28T22:15:00.000-08:00

Here they are. Care to comment?

No Surprises

2006-02-26T11:06:00.000-08:00

Think this year is one of the most boring in memory? So do I. Let's take a look back at the top 8 categories over past decade and see how many legitimate "surprises" -- extreme long-shot wins that few saw coming -- turned up on Oscar night:

2004:
- No surprises

2003:
- Best Adapted Screenplay ("The Return of the King" over "Mystic River" and "Seabiscuit")

2002:
- Best Director (Roman Polanski for "The Pianist" over Rob Marshall for "Chicago" and Martin Scorsese for "Gangs of New York")
- Best Actor (Adrien Brody for "The Pianist" over Jack Nicholson for "About Schmidt" and Daniel Day-Lewis for "Gangs of New York")
- Best Adapted Screenplay ("The Pianist" over "Adaptation" and "The Hours")

2001:
- No suprises

2000:
- Best Director (Steven Soderbergh for "Traffic" over Ang Lee for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and Ridley Scott for "Gladiator")
- Best Supporting Actress (Marcia Gay Harden for "Pollock" over Kate Hudson for "Almost Famous")

1999:
- No surprises

1998:
- Best Picture ("Shakespeare in Love" over "Saving Private Ryan")
- Best Supporting Actor (James Coburn for "Affliction" over Ed Harris for "The Truman Show" and Billy Bob Thornton for "A Simple Plan")
- Best Adapted Screenplay ("Gods & Monsters" over "A Simple Plan" and "Out of Sight")

1997:
- No surprises

1996:
- Best Supporting Actor (Kevin Spacey for "The Usual Suspects" over Ed Harris for "Apollo 13")
- Best Original Screenplay ("The Usual Suspects" over "Braveheart")

1995:
- No surprises

So out of 80 awards given in the top 8 categories over the past decade, 11 were shocks (come-from-behind victories, not close duels like Annette Bening and Hilary Swank in 1999). That's about 14%.

Looking back at these results, we can see how much of a shock "The Pianist" victories were in 2002. (Three huge wins that no one saw coming?!) 1998 was another year that saw quite a few longshots win, while "The Usual Suspects" cleaned up against all odds in 1995. Also, Ed Harris has been screwed over on more than one occasion.

So if there is a big shock this year? I'm betting on Jake Gyllenhaal ("Brokeback Mountain") in Best Supporting Actor -- the benefactor of a vote-split scenario between perceived frontrunners Paul Giamatti ("Cinderella Man") and George Clooney ("Syriana").

Led Zep-flicks

2006-02-25T00:18:00.000-08:00

In order to put up some reviews of movies I hadn't gotten around to writing about, I decided to describe them using Led Zeppelin lyrics (check 'em out over here).

Wanna add your own?

Trivia Question:

2006-02-08T20:46:00.000-08:00

Assuming that our acting winners are Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, George Clooney (or even Paul Giamatti), and Rachel Weisz (or even Michelle Williams), when was the last time that all 4 winners were also first-time nominees?

2005/06 Oscar Nominations & Analysis TBA

2006-01-29T22:51:00.000-08:00

On Tuesday morning, I'll post the noms here as soon as they are announced at the crack of dawn. More analysis to follow later in the day. Until then, we wait...

The nominations: Here

And the biggest shocks are:
- No Mario Bello for Best Supporting Actress ("History of Violence")
- William Hurt made it in for Best Supporting Actor ("History of Violence")
- Best Director and Best Picture match up evenly for first time since 1980/81 (despite the fact that this was supposed to be a "crazy" year")
- Keira Knightley for Best Actress ("Pride & Prejudice")
- "Syriana" did make it in for Original Screenplay
- The "Hustle & Flow" song made it in
- Terrence Howard ("Hustle & Flow") scored a nod
- "Munich" for Best Picture

My Final Nominee Predictions

2006-01-25T20:54:00.000-08:00

Here they are. Whaddya think???

Guild Predictions Aplenty

2006-01-22T23:03:00.000-08:00

Well, I forgot that the PGA awards were on the 22nd, so I didn't pick a horse in that race (it would've been "Brokeback," though). Here's my guesses for the other 3 top guilds:

DGA (Jan. 28th)
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"

SAG (Jan. 29th)
Actor: Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
Actress: Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Supporting Actor: Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
Cast Ensemble: "Crash"

WGA (Feb. 4th)
Original: "Crash"
Adapted: "Capote"

Golden Globe Predictions

2006-01-14T19:55:00.000-08:00

I'll keep these short and sweet...

Best Film (Drama)
"Brokeback Mountain." Duh.

Best Actor (Drama)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote." This is a tough call since the film got squat in other categories, but the momentum is his.

Best Actress (Drama)
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica." I bet voters give her two awards in the same evening (soemthing they happen to do a lot). Maria Bello is my gut pick, though.

Best Film (Mus/Com)
"Walk the Line." I bet "Pride & Prejudice" could pull an upset, though.

Best Actor (Mus/Com)
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line." Who else are they going to pick, Johnny Depp? Perhaps a last-minute surge by Jeff Daniels could leave the door open ever so slightly for an Oscar nod.

Best Actress (Mus/Com)
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line." One of the easiest calls of the night.

Best Supporting Actress
Scarlett Johansson, "Match Point." This may be wishful thinking, but I don't feel the sweep for "Brokeback" including Michelle Williams (just yet) and Rachel Weisz disappears for a large portion of her film. One of the toughest calls of the night.

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney, "Syriana." Globe voters will want to see him up on stage yet again.

Best Director
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain." To go along with the Best Film trophy.

Best Screenplay
"Crash." A way to honor a film that received little love elsewhere.

Best Foreign-Language Film
"Kung Fu Hustle." It swept the other precursors, so why not?

Best Song
"A Love That Will Never Grow Old" ("Brokeback Mountain"). Umm...because this pic's winning in other categories, too?

Best Score
"Brokeback Mountain." Really the best of this bunch.

SAG & DGA Nominees

2006-01-04T23:23:00.000-08:00

The Director's Guild has nominated the following directors:

- Paul Haggis, "Crash"
- Steven Spielberg, "Munich"
- Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
- George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- Bennett Miller, "Capote"

(I had predicted Woody Allen, not Bennett Miller)

---

The Screen Actor's Guild has nominated the following performances:

Best Actor
- Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
- David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
- Russell Crowe, "Cinderella Man"

(I had Howard, not Crowe.)

Best Actress
- Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
- Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
- Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
- Charlize Theron, "North Country"
- Ziyi Zhang, "Memoirs of a Geisha"

(I had Allen/Knightley/Linney, not Dench/Theron/Zhang.)

Best Supporting Actor
- Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
- Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
- George Clooney, "Syriana"
- Matt Dillon, "Crash"
- Don Cheadle, "Crash"

(I had Howard/Nelson, not Cheadle/Giamatti.)

Best Supporting Actress
- Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
- Amy Adams, "Junebug"
- Frances McDormand, "North Country"
- Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"
- Catherine Keener, "Capote"

(I had Johansson/Keaton/MacLaine/Bello, not Adams/McDormand/Weisz/Keener.)

Cast Ensemble
- "Brokeback Mountain"
- "Capote"
- "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- "Crash"
- "Hustle & Flow" (!!!)

(I had "Syriana"/"Walk the Line," not "Capote"/"Hustle & Flow.")

PGA & WGA Nominees

2006-01-04T09:47:00.000-08:00

The Producer's Guild has nominated the following 5 films:

- "Walk the Line"
- "Crash"
- "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- "Brokeback Mountain"
- "Capote"

(I had predicted "King Kong" and "Munich" in place of "Crash" and "Capote.")

---

The Writer's Guild has nominated the following 5 Original Screenplays:

- "Cinderella Man"
- "Crash"
- "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" (!!!)
- "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- "The Squid and the Whale"

(I had predicted "Match Point" and "Hustle & Flow" in place of "Cinderella Man" and "Virgin.")

---

The Writer's Guild has nominated the following 5 Adapted Screenplays:

- "Syriana"
- "A History of Violence"
- "The Constant Gardener"
- "Capote"
- "Brokeback Mountain"

(I predicted all five of these correctly! I'm a genius!)

The Best of 2005

2006-01-02T19:10:00.000-08:00

My Top 10 Films
1. "Grizzly Man"
2. "Crash"
3. "Brokeback Mountain"
4. "A History of Violence"
5. "Match Point"
6. "Good Night, and Good Luck"
7. "Munich"
8. "Syriana"
9. "Capote"
10. "War of the Worlds"

And the Rest
Best Director
David Cronenberg, "A History of Violence"
Werner Herzog, "Grizzly Man"
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"*
Woody Allen, "Match Point"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"

Best Actor
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
Eric Bana, "Munich"
David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"*
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"

Best Actress
Joan Allen, "The Upside of Anger"
Radha Mitchell, "Melinda & Melinda"
Claire Danes, "Shopgirl"
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"*
Patricia Clarkson, "The Dying Gaul"

Best Supporting Actor
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
Terrence Howard, "Crash"*
Mickey Rourke, "Sin City"
William Hurt, "A History of Violence"
Alexander Siddig, "Syriana"

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Linney, "The Squid & the Whale"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Happy Endings"*
Mario Bello, "A History of Violence"
Catherine Keener, "Capote"
Scarlett Johansson, "Match Point"

Best Original Screenplay
"Crash"
"Happy Endings"
"Broken Flowers"
"The Squid & the Whale"
"Match Point"*

Best Adapted Screenplay
"A History of Violence"
"Capote"
"Syriana"*
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Munich"

* = winner

My Top 10 Albums of the Year

2005-12-23T10:58:00.000-08:00

10. The Mars Volta, Frances the Mute

If this is what the new breed of prog-rock sounds like, I'm on board. Omar Rodriguez-Lopez and Cedric Bixler-Zavala warp guitars, beats, shrieks, and wails into mini-suites with propulsive energy and a dark sense of destruction.

* Best Track: "The Widow" (sample)

9. Daft Punk, Human After All

After the throbbing beats of Homework, the French duo turned over a pop leaf with the extraordinarily joyous Discovery. There's definitely a rushed, off-the-cuff feeling to the oddly long-in-the-works Human After All, but luckily there are more hits ("Emotion," "Human After All") than misses (the repetitive -- even for them -- "Television Rules the Nation").

* Best Track: "Robot Rock" (sample)

8. The White Stripes, Get Behind Me Satan

It's definitely a step back from Elephant, and probably two steps back from White Blood Cells, but B-material by the Stripes is till A-material by most bands' standards. It's tough to fault Meg and Jack for experimentation when piano stomper "The Denial Twist" and the marimba-tinged "The Nurse" rock so hard.

* Best Track: "My Doorbell" (sample)

7. Beck, Guero

The critically overrated Sea Change was a real downer, but Beck's latest seems to ignore it altogether. With upbeat, funk-heavy tracks like "Girl" and the charging "E-Pro," Mr. Hansen seems to have jumped out of his blue period without losing an ear.

* Best Track: "E-Pro" (sample)

6. The Chemical Brothers, Push the Button

The Chems never cease to amaze (me, anyway). Each of their albums has offered new variations of the techno-rock they've become famous for, and Push the Button is no exception. The starry "Surface to Air," bouncy "The Boxer," and breakbeat "Shake Bounce Break" are all highlights. Even the wordy political diatribe "Left Right" has its moments.

* Best Track: "Marvo Ging" (sample)

5. The Arcade Fire, Funeral

Yes, it came out at the end of last year, but it's the type of slow-burning chamber rock that takes repeated listens before etching itself into your subconscious. An odd blend of folk, bluegrass, garage, and theater, songs like the sublime "Rebellion (Lies)" showcase the ability of the Canadian four-piece to jump genres and atmospheres from track to track.

* Best Track: "Tunnels" (sample)

4. Keane, Hopes & Fears

Another year-ender from '04 that required a series of mental shifts on my part before I recognized its frail simplicity; it went from moody to catchy to can't-put-it-down over the course of the last few months. Nearly every song is a hummable gem. And apparently the (usually lame) Grammys agreed: Keane was nominated for Best New Artist last month.

* Best Track: "Everybody's Changing" (sample)

3. Coldplay, X&Y

Cheesy Brit-pop can be your friend. The band is clearly overplayed, overproduced, and overrated. But that Chris Martin can sure write a memorable song. (In fact, he's written thirteen of them.) They alternately soar ("Square One"), wallow ("The Hardest Part"), and rock ("Low").

* Best Track: "Speed of Sound" (sample)

2. Fiona Apple, Extraordinary Machine

Ms. Apple returned after an overlong hiatus (following the brilliant When the Pawn... back in 1999) to deliver her second consecutive baroque masterpiece. If it's just her and the piano ("Parting Gift") the results are remarkable; if she's flying solo with the help of a few plucked strings (the bizarrely mesmerizing title track) it's stunning. A rich, supple voice -- a must-own.

* Best Track: "Waltz" (sample)

1. Sigur Ros, Takk

Music from Iceland, sung in Icelandic. But it's great. The moving "Glosoli" builds to a climax of stomping beauty, while bells, chants, and piano drift in and out of the cinematic "Hoppipolla" and "Milano." What does it all mean? Haven't got a clue. But it's the best listen of the year.

* Best Track: "Saeglopur" (sample)

Who Will Get Guild Nominations?

2005-12-19T17:17:00.000-08:00

It's still two weeks away, but I have free time now, so here it goes. My predictions for nominations in the four major guilds:

(PS: I am aware that many of these are -- to put it mildly -- highly imaginative. My most out-there predictions I've marked with an asterisk.)

Producer's Guild (PGA) - Jan. 4th
- "King Kong"
- "Brokeback Mountain"
- "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- "Walk the Line"
- "Munich"

Writer's Guild (WGA) - Jan. 4th
Original Screenplay
- "The Squid & the Whale"
- "Match Point"
- "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- "Crash"
- "Hustle & Flow"*

Adapted Screenplay
- "Brokeback Mountain"
- "Capote"
- "Syriana"
- "The Constant Gardener"*
- "A History of Violence"

Director's Guild (DGA) - Jan. 5th
- Woody Allen, "Match Point"
- Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
- George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- Paul Haggis, "Crash"*
- Steven Spielberg, "Munich"

Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) - Jan. 5th
Lead Actor
- Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
- David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
- Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"*

Lead Actress
- Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
- Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
- Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"*
- Joan Allen, "The Upside of Anger"
- Laura Linney, "The Squid & the Whale"*

Supporting Actor
- Craig T. Nelson, "The Family Stone"*
- Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
- George Clooney, "Syriana"
- Matt Dillon, "Crash"*
- Terrence Howard, "Crash"*

Supporting Actress
- Maria Bello, "A History of Violence"
- Scarlett Johansson, "Match Point"
- Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
- Shirley MacLaine, "In Her Shoes"
- Diane Keaton, "The Family Stone"

Cast Ensemble
- "Brokeback Mountain"
- "Syriana"
- "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- "Crash"
- "Walk the Line"

Sneak Preview

2005-12-19T17:02:00.000-08:00

I still have to see "Match Point," "The New World," "Munich," and "Transamerica," so I won't be revealing my official Top 10 list or handing out my own personal awards just yet. But I've narrowed it down considerably. My Top 10 (and 5 "honorable mentions") will be coming from this shortlist, in no particular order:

- "A History of Violence"
- "Brokeback Mountain"
- "Syriana"
- "Capote"
- "The 40-Year-Old Virgin"
- "Grizzly Man"
- "Match Point"
- "Crash"
- "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- "War of the Worlds"
- "The Squid and the Whale"
- "Last Days"
- "Shopgirl"
- "Jarhead"
- "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire"
- "Melinda & Melinda"

Those are all pretty good movies, if I do say so myself. Discuss.

Golden Globe Noms In

2005-12-12T21:16:00.000-08:00

(* = I guessed it correctly; PS: I did really well in Best Director...and Best Actress if you count the category screw-ups.)

Best Pic, Drama
*Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
*Good Night, and Good Luck
A History of Violence
*Match Point

Actor, Drama
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
*Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terence Howard, Hustle and Flow
*Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
*David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

Actress, Drama
*Maria Bello, A History of Violence
*Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
*Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
*Charlize Theron, North Country
*Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Pic, Musical/Comedy
Mrs. Henderson Presents
*Pride & Prejudice
*The Producers
The Squid & the Whale
*Walk the Line

Actor, Musical/Comedy
Pierce Brosnan, The Matador
*Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
Johnny Depp, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
*Nathan Lane, The Producers
Cillian Murphy, Breakfast on Pluto
*Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line

Actress, Musical/Comedy
*Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
*Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale
Sarah Jessica Parker, The Family Stone
*Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Will Farrell, The Producers
*Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
*Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents

Supporting Actress
*Scarlett Johannsson, Match Point
Shirley MacLaine, In Her Shoes
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Best Director
*Woody Allen, Match Point
*George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
*Peter Jackson, King Kong
*Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Fernando Mereilles, The Constant Gardener
*Steven Spielberg, Munich

Best Screenplay
*Match Point
Good Night, and Good Luck
*Crash
Munich
*Brokeback Mountain

And the rest:

Original Score
Syriana
King Kong
Brokeback Mountain
Chronicles of Narnia
Memoirs of a Geisha

Original Song
Brokeback Mountain
Crhistmas in Love
The Producers
Transamerica
Chronicles of Narnia

Foreign Film
Kung Fu Hustle
The Promise
Merry Christmas
Paradise Now
Tsotsi

Lotsa Awards Doled Out

2005-12-12T10:18:00.000-08:00

Check Oscarwatch for the Boston & AFI rundowns. Here's the NY Critics' Awards and National Board of Review, with asterisks indicating a prediction I got right:

NY Critics
*Pic: "Brokeback Mountain"
Dir: Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
*Actor: Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mounain"
Actress: Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Sup Actor: William Hurt, "A History of Violence"
Sup Actress: Maria Bello, "A History of Violence"
Screenplay: "The Squid and the Whale"

NBR Awards
#1:
*Good Night, and Good Luck
#2-10 (alphabetical):
*Brokeback Mountain
*Capote
*Crash
History of Violence
*Match Point
*Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Syriana
*Walk the Line
(7 of 10 -- not bad for me)

Best Director: Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Best Actress: Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Best Supporting Actor: Jacke Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
Best Supporting Actress: Gong Li, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Best Screenplay: "The Squid and the Whale"
Foreign Film: "Paradise Now" (Palestine)
Documentary: "March of the Penguins"
*Animated Film: "The Corpse Bride"
*Breakthrough: Q'orianka Kilcher, "The New World"

L.A. Critics Winners

2005-12-10T18:23:00.000-08:00

- Picture: "Brokeback Mountain" (2nd: "A History of Violence")
- Director: Ang Lee (2nd: David Cronenberg)
- Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote (2nd: Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain")
- Actress: Vera Farmiga, "Down to the Bone" (2nd: Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents")
- Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener, for "Capote," "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," "The Ballad of Jack and Rose," "The Interpreter" (2nd: Amy Adams, "Junebug")
- Supporting Actor: William Hurt, "A History of Violence" (2nd: Frank Langella, "Good Night, and Good Luck")
- Screenplay: Tie: Dan Futterman, "Capote" & Noah Baumbach, "The Squid and the Whale")
- Cinematography: "Good Night, and Good Luck" (2nd: "2046")
- Production Design: "2046" (2nd: "Good Night, and Good Luck")
- Score: "Howl's Moving Castle"
- New Generation: Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
Documentary: "Grizzly Man" (2nd: "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room")
Animated Feature: "The Curse of the Were-Rabbit"
Foreign Film: "Cachet" (2nd: "2046")

So I got 3 right: "Brokeback Mountain," "The Curse of the Were-Rabbit," and "Grizzly Man." Vera Farmiga is most shocking and probably won't make much noise elsewhere -- but who knows? And is the Amy Adams surge for real?

Who needed the buzz sustained and got it? "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Capote," and "A History of Violence," even if some were second-place mentions.

Golden Globe Predictions

2005-12-09T15:48:00.000-08:00

These will be announced on the 13th. I'm fairly confident about them. What's your take?

Best Picture (Drama)
- "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- "Match Point"
- "King Kong"
- "Brokeback Mountain"
- "Munich"

Best Actor (Drama)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
- David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- Ralph Fiennes, "The Constant Gardener"
- Viggo Mortensen, "A History of Violence"
- Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"

Best Actress (Drama)
- Charlize Theron, "North Country"
- Renee Zellweger, "Cinderella Man"
- Naomi Watts, "King Kong"
- Gwyneth Paltrow, "Proof"
- Ziyi Zhang, "Memoirs of a Geisha"

Best Picture (Mus/Com)
- "Rent"
- "Walk the Line"
- "Pride & Prejudice"
- "The Producers"
- "The Family Stone"

Best Actor (Mus/Com)
- Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
- Jeff Daniels, "The Squid and the Whale"
- Nathan Lane, "The Producers"
- Steve Carrell, "The 40-Year-Old Virgin"
- Bill Murray, "Broken Flowers"

Best Actress (Mus/Com)
- Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
- Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
- Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
- Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"
- Joan Allen, "The Upside of Anger"

Best Supporting Actor
- Terrence Howard, "Crash"
- Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
- Bob Hoskins, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
- Peter Sarsgaard, "Jarhead"
- Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"

Best Supporting Actress
- Diane Keaton, "The Family Stone"
- Gong Li, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
- Maria Bello, "A History of Violence"
- Scarlett Johansson, "Match Point"
- Uma Thurman, "The Producers"

Best Director
- Woody Allen, "Match Point"
- Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
- Steven Spielberg, "Munich"
- George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- Peter Jackson, "King Kong"

Best Screenplay
- "Brokeback Mountain"
- "Match Point"
- "Syriana"
- "The Squid and the Whale"
- "Crash"

L.A./N.Y. Film Crix Predix

2005-12-08T11:09:00.000-08:00

It's pretty fun to abbreviate words a la Variety when you get the chance. Anyway...

The NBR Awards have been delayed until Monday, which is the same day the N.Y. Critics announce. The L.A. Critics announce the previous Saturday. Here's my guesswork for the latter two groups:

Los Angeles:
Pic: "Brokeback Mountain"
Dir: Peter Jackson, "King Kong"
Actor: David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Actress: Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Sup Actor: Matt Dillon, "Crash"
Sup Actress: Maria Bello, "A History of Violence"
Screenplay: "Crash"
Doc: "Grizzly Man"
Animated: "The Curse of the Were-Rabbit"
(In my opinion, the L.A. critics usually go for the mainstream faves within the indie circle.)

New York:
Pic: "Brokeback Mountain"
Dir: Woody Allen, "Match Point"
Actor: Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mounain"
Actress: Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Sup Actor: Bob Hoskins, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Sup Actress: Scarlett Johanssen, "Match Point"
Screenplay: "Brokeback Mountain"
Doc: "Grizzly Man"
Animated: "The Corpse Bride"
(In my opinion, the N.Y. critics usually go for the more artsy, esoteric fare.)

NBR Predictions

2005-11-29T17:33:00.000-08:00

Under cloud of scandal, here are my National Board of Review predictions (oh, I guess we have 2 scandals now -- this and the "Grizzly Man" omission). The org always likes to throw in a few "populist" favorites (hence "Rent" and "King Kong") in addition to the artsy fare. I plan on getting 6 of their Top 10 correct; if I get 7 or better, somebody owes me a drink.

The announcement will be made next week on Tuesday, December 6th.

Top 10:
1. "Brokeback Mountain"
2. "Capote"
3. "Memoirs of a Geisha"
4. "Match Point"
5. "Walk the Line"
6. "Crash"
7. "Good Night, and Good Luck"
8. "Rent"
9. "King Kong"
10. "The Constant Gardener"

- Best Director: Woody Allen, "Match Point"
- Best Actor: David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
- Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
- Best Supporting Actor: William Hurt, "A History of Violence"
- Best Supporting Actress: Scarlett Johansson, "Match Point"
- Best Screenplay: "Crash"
- Foreign Film: "C.R.A.Z.Y." (Canada)
- Documentary: "Grizzly Man"
- Animated Film: "The Corpse Bride"
- Breakthrough: Terrence Howard (male); Q'orianka Kilcher (female)

Independent Spirit Award Nominations

2005-11-29T09:21:00.000-08:00

There's little crossover to Oscar, but it's nice to know who the independent film community supports. (Apparently "The Squid and the Whale.") Also, I'm glad they recognized the sure-to-be-overlooked Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Happy Endings" and Jeffrey Wright in "Broken Flowers." The nominations:

BEST FEATURE
- Brokeback Mountain
- Capote
- Good Night, and Good Luck.
- The Squid and the Whale
- The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada

BEST DIRECTOR
- Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
- George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.
- Gregg Araki, Mysterious Skin
- Rodrigo Garcia, Nine Lives
- Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale

BEST FIRST FEATURE
- Crash
- Lackawanna Blues
- Me and You and Everyone We Know
- Thumbsucker
- Transamerica

BEST MALE LEAD
- Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
- Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
- Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
- David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.

BEST FEMALE LEAD
- Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
- Dina Korzun, Forty Shades of Blue
- Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale
- S. Epatha Merkerson, Lackawanna Blues
- Cyndi Williams, Room

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
- Firdous Bamji, The War Within
- Matt Dillon, Crash
- Jesse Eisenberg, The Squid and the Whale
- Barry Pepper, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
- Jeffrey Wright, Broken Flowers

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
- Amy Adams, Junebug
- Maggie Gyllenhaal, Happy Endings
- Allison Janney, Our Very Own
- Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
- Robin Wright Penn, Nine Lives

BEST SCREENPLAY
- Ayad Akhtar, Joseph Castelo, Tom Glynn, The War Within
- Guillermo Arriaga, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
- Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
- Dan Futterman, Capote
- Rodrigo Garcia, Nine Lives

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
- Kenneth Hanes, Fixing Frank
- Miranda July, Me and You and Everyone We Know
- Angus MacLachlan, Junebug
- Sabina Murray, The Beautiful Country
- Duncan Tucker, Transamerica

BEST DOCUMENTARY
- Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, Director: Alex Gibney
- Grizzly Man, Director: Werner Herzog
- La Sierra, Directors: Scott Dalton & Margarita Martinez
- Romantico, Director: Mark Becker
- Sir! No Sir!, Director: David Zeiger

Outrage in -- what else? -- the Documentary Category

2005-11-16T07:58:00.000-08:00

Here's the shortlist for this year's Best Documentary category:

- "March of the Penguins"
- "After Innocence"
- "The Boys of Baraka"
- "Darwin's Nightmare"
- "The Devil and Daniel Johnston"
- "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room"
- "Favela Rising"
- "Mad Hot Ballroom"
- "Murderball"
- "Occupation: Dreamland"
- "On Native Soil: The Documentary of the 9/11 Commission Report"
- "Rize"
- "Street Fight"
- "39 Pounds of Love"
- "Unknown White Male"

Notice something? "Grizzly Man" isn't on it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is a shockingly bad omission, and just after the Doc branch had been getting better in recent years (remember the days when "Roger and Me," "Truth or Dare," and "The Thin Blue Line" failed to make the grade?) I know people in the branch, and I can't believe "Grizzly Man" could get overlooked. Perhaps it was some sort of rule technicality?

In any event, it's already primed to be my #1 pic of the year.

The NBR: Nobody Buys Respect

2005-10-27T13:58:00.000-07:00

By now you may (or may not) have heard about the impropriety charges levied against the National Board of Review that are swirling around town. They're threatening to derail the traditional start of the Oscar season, as the secretive NBR is typically the first awards group to hand out kudos each year. Here's an excerpt from Variety:

A cadre of former NBR members has filed a complaint with New York state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer accusing the NBR's current leadership of not complying with "reasonable bylaws and not-for-profit requirements."

The group, which filed its complaint last month through Loeb & Loeb, is alleging that the NBR carries an "illegal and improper executive board" and that proxy votes have been improperly used to oust board members. Dissidents further charge NBR prexyprexy Annie Schulhof with having a conflict of interest by owning a production shingleshingle, and with giving preferential treatment to friends and family, including free advertising in NBR literature.

The National Board of Review, however, fought back:

NBR treasurer and legal reprep Leon Friedman told Daily Variety that a complaint filed with Attorney General Eliot Spitzer "has no merit whatsoever," and that two ringleaders behind the complaint, Susan Nielsen and Grant Johnson, "both were voted off the board and apparently have some personal grievances."

No word yet on whether the awards will be doled out as scheduled. You'll have to stay tuned.

Breaking! 'All the King's Men' Postponed

2005-10-21T08:30:00.000-07:00

It's as if I'm the cub reporter for the New York Times. (Well, not actually, since I got this news from Variety.) But anyways, this article here (subscription required) tells us that production delays (not reshoots! remember that, not reshoots!) will postpone the release of "All the King's Men" until Oscar season 2006.

I'll update all of my Prediction Pages soon. This means we can cross off Clarkson, Law, Penn, the screenplay, and everything else until next year.

The same article also mentions that Paul Greengrass' 9/11 drama "Flight 93" will hit theaters on April 28th. Kinda early if the studio is gearing for awards recognition, but I'm betting the story speaks for itself.

Politics at the Oscars?

2005-10-18T14:28:00.000-07:00

I hate to get political on this (supposedly) non-denominational site, but it seems as though partisanship may be rearing its head big-time in the 2005 Best Picture lineup. I mean, look at all of these hot-button titles that deal directly with left-right issues and have a legitmate shot at a Best Picture nod:

- "Jarhead" (the first Gulf War)
- "Good Night, and Good Luck" (GOP Senator Joe McCarthy vs. liberal George Clooney)
- "Syriana" (Clooney again, this time in shady oil deals with the Middle East)
- "Munich" (Olympic terrorism)
- "Brokeback Mountain" (Hollywood confronts homophobia)
- "All the King's Men" (high-level political corruption)

One could also stretch the point with these films that briefly touch on social issues:

- "North Country" (Anita Hill-esque sexual harassment, right in the middle of the Harriet Miers hearings)
- "Capote" (the death penalty is discussed at length)
- "A History of Violence" (some read a lot into the violence as a surrogate for Bush & Iraq)

Here's to "Match Point"!

New Reviews Soon...

2005-10-09T21:55:00.000-07:00

I've been a little lax in my reviews the past few weeks because I've been busy with...laziness, but I'll put up 4 or 5 this week, I swear. A quick preview with absolutely no analysis (but trust me, they're coming!):

"Sin City" -- B+
"A History of Violence" -- A-
"The Constant Gardener" -- B+
"The Corpse Bride" -- B+
"In Her Shoes" -- B

And I also may see "North Country" on Tuesday. I'm very curious about that one.

New October Predictions

2005-09-26T20:37:00.000-07:00

They're up on the site, check 'em out. Some notes...

1. I didn't like the "Memoirs of a Geisha" trailer, and maybe groupthink is setting in as well -- I decided to take it off the top tier, albeit briefly. We'll see how it fares as reviews start coming in in the next month or so.

2. Patricia Clarkson: Great in "Good Night, and Good Luck," but it's not enough for a nomination. She never has that one "scene" that would warrant an Oscar nod; she sorta exists around the periphery of the action, delivering small bits of dialog with her expected gusto. It's down to "Dying Gaul" or "All the King's Men"...

3. Julianne Moore: No nom this year? I still have her at #1, but "Prize Winner" seems too cornball despite the good reviews, and "Freedomland" might end up a little-seen, end-of-the-year blip. This could be her last update in the Top 5.

4. I think there are too many indie films in the Best Actor category. Jones in "3 Burials," Hoffman in "Capote," Strathairn in "Good Night," and Ledger in "Brokeback" are all in very small, controversial, and/or under-the-radar pics. Only Phoenix in "Walk the Line" might be considered your standard Oscar fare. My list seems unlikely to hold.

5. Why is the "Crash" buzz in Supporting Actor shifting away from T. Howard and onto M. Dillon? Dillon was better than usual, but still stiff. Howard was great, and it's his best bet this year (and it is "his year").

What do you think?

A History of Violence

2005-09-19T11:30:00.000-07:00

I had the pleasure of seeing this film last Friday, and thought I'd post some quick thoughts here before I delve into a full review.

First up: Maria Bello is excellent in the pic, and is definitely in strong running for a nomination. She's even better than Viggo Mortensen, who is also very good in an understated sort-of-way.

The film itself is "simple," but not in a bad way. David Cronenberg just knows the economy of a scene, and pushes each one to the extreme with terse juxtapositions of sex, violence, and ambiguous dialogue.

I'm not so sure how the film will fare generally given its "small" nature and the prevalence of bigger, flashier films yet to come out, but Viggo, Bello, and the screenplay are surely in play.

The Emmys Are Lame

2005-09-18T10:17:00.000-07:00

TV just sucks nowadays. Too many reality shows.

That said, here are the programs I try to make some sort of ritual to watch: Any "Law & Order," "The Simpsons," "Family Guy," "The O.C.," "The Apprentice" (yes, I'm breaking my own rule), and "Lost." I will occasionally breeze by "American Idol" when it's on. And when I had HBO, I would watch all of their stuff -- "Sopranos," "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "Entourage," "Da Ali G Show," "Six Feet Under."

Now to my Emmy predictions...which are totally not as fun as my very involved Oscar predictions:

Best Comedy: "Desperate Housewives" (I have never seen one minute of this show)
Best Drama: "Lost" (I have seen every minute of this show)
Reality Show: "Amazing Race" (It seems to win every year)
Variety Show: "The Daily Show" (can't wait to see the nominee clip reel)
Lead Actor (C): Jason Bateman, "Arrested Development" (Not a bad show)
Lead Actor (D): Hugh Laurie, "House" (Mix of seriousness and high ratings)
Lead Actress (C): Marcia Cross, "Desperate Housewives" ("Melrose Place" shout-out!)
Lead Actress (D): Mariska Hargitay, "L&O: SVU" (Best of the current "L&O" bunch)
Supp Actor (C): Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" (Because everyone in LA is just like him)
Supp Actor (D): Terry O'Quinn, "Lost" (That wheelchair episode -- best ever)
Supp Actress (C): Doris Roberts, "Everybody Loves Raymond" (All odd nominees here)
Supp Actress (D): CCH Pounder, "The Shield" (To make up for other "Shield" snubs)

There it is, let's see how it goes. My % right could be a harbinger for the upcoming Oscar season.

Welcome to the AwardSpeculation.com blog

2005-09-17T14:22:00.000-07:00

I hate to crib from the respected community of Oscarwatchers, but after visiting Nathaniel's blog at The Film Experience, I realized that I also could do a lot more updating on a blog instead of with cumbersome weekly site updates. (But don't worry -- I'll still be doing those, too.)

So feel free to check here early and often for my immediate thoughts on screenings, movie buzz, and other random things I'm thinking about. And leave lots of comments, too -- so I can tell if this venture is worthwhile.

Until tomorrow...